Extented synopsis

Project idea and objectives

The research proposal aims to address the challenges posed by Italy's demographic decline by predicting future urban policy needs and providing a proactive approach for decision-makers in local administrations. The key objectives achieved are:

Understand Demographic Trends: The primary goal is to comprehend the ongoing demographic trends in Italy, which include an ageing population, a declining birth rate, and changes in the working-age population. This objective will be achieved by conducting a comprehensive demographic analysis of the Italian territory using official data sources from ISTAT.
Identify High-Risk Territorial Clusters: The research aims to identify specific geographic areas (clusters) where demographic changes will have the most significant impact on urban policy needs. By analyzing the demographic data, areas with the highest vulnerability to demographic changes will be pinpointed, allowing for targeted policy responses.
Anticipate Future Policy Needs: The proposal seeks to predict future urban policy requirements by incorporating statistical projections of demographic changes for each identified territory. This aim will be achieved with foresight methods, which will be used to show the needs for infrastructure (e.g., schools, hospitals, housing), welfare policies (due to an increase in the elderly population and decreased working-age population), and educational policies (based on variations in student populations at different levels) with the use of scenarios.
Provide a Policy Roadmap: The research aims to equip local administrations with a strategic roadmap for policy interventions over the next decade, enabling them to align investments with projected urban policy needs. This objective will be reached by mapping out the expected policy needs over the next 10 years, local administrations can make informed decisions on where to allocate resources from various funding sources, including PNRR, European, national, regional, and local funds.